Now, these pairs are trying to break Monday’s lows, which would signal bearish continuation. However, a failure to break lower in the US session will suggest further consolidation throughout this week;

EUR/USD1H Chart 9:55AM EDT 5/8: Previous: 5/7

The EUR/USD 1H chart shows a bearish market that maintained the bearish momentum as the RSI reading failed to break above 60, and price action failed to break back above the 1.31 handle. It is now edging lower, at 1.30 again, trying to retest the 1.2950 Monday low. If the RSI falls below 30 again, the bearish momentum will be revived, and a break below 1.2950would be imminent. The next support level for the EUR/USD is near 1.2870.

GBP/USD 1H chart 10:00AM EDT 5/8/2012. Previous: 5/7

After failing to break through 1.62, the GBP/USD fell back and is nearing the Monday low around 1.6120. Then the 1.61 psychological barrier might cause a reaction, but key support is not until the 1.6050-1.6070 area. The bearish outlook is limited to 1.60, which would meet a rising trendline. Until 1.60 is broken, GBP/USD looks poised to continue higher, although there is a challenge of a recent trendline will be slightly below 1.63 if the market does indeed head higher in May.

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source from: fxtimes

Euro is struggling as the political situation in the eurozone deteriorates. For the most part, the focus is on Greece. The country has been unable to form a new government, and there are already rumblings of another election — and the possibility is being raised that Greece will withdraw from the currency bloc. Even if a government is eventually formed, the worry is that the new leaders won’t adhere to the austerity measures agreed to for the Greek bailout.

But it’s not just Greece that is struggling. The new French President,Francois Hollande, is calling for less austerity and more spending for stimulus. This is an approach that Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has already rejected. The relationship between the two largest economies in the eurozone is likely to only become more strained, and overall eurozone leadership is in doubt.

As you might imagine, that makes for a great deal of uncertainty. The euro is suffering because of it, falling to safe haven currencies as Forex traders look for stability.

At 15:21 GMT EUR/USD is down to 1.2980 from the open at 1.3052. EUR/JPY is down to 103.6645 from the open at 129.3850.

source from: topforexnews

Gold continues to fall since finding a high near 1800 at the end of February. In march it has been trading in a decliningchannel. The latest bear swing started from the central pivot near 1666.50 and is breaking below some recent lows at 1623and now 1612. In the intra-day 1H and 4H charts, the market looks like it is going to become a bit oversold in the short-term as it nears the 1600 handle. However, further downside risk remains.

The next support pivot is at 1560. Below that is the range support zone that goes down toward the 1520-1530 area.  As the market gets closer and closer to the lower end of the range suppor a range-bound market will have stronger and stronger tendency to revert back toward the central pivot around 1666.50.

source from: fxtimes

Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.40 percent lower on the day, we may see the reserve currency consolidate throughout the North American session as the 30-minute relative strength index bounces back from oversold territory. With support coming up at 9,900 a breach below the key figure could open the door for another selloff, but we will maintain our bullish outlook for the greenback as the recovery in the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. With the slew of market-moving event risks on tap for the following week, we should see the dollar hold steady as market participants turn their attention to the Federal Open Market committee interest rate decision on Wednesday.

As the USDOLLAR comes up against the lower bounds of the upward trending channel, a break here would reinforce the bearish divergence in the RSI, which should pull the index back towards the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,830. At the same time, if we see the dollar maintain the bullish formation, we could see the greenback continue to build a short-term base to make another run at the 78.6 percent Fib at 10,118. Nevertheless, as the FOMC rate decision highlights the biggest event risk for the following week, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric will have heavy implications for short-term price action, and we will look for any hawkish comments to strengthen our bullish outlook for the reserve currency. In light of the recent comments from Fed officials, it seems as though the board will start to lay out a tentative exit strategy ahead of the second-half of the year, and the committee look to target the risk for inflation amid the stickiness in underlying price growth. In turn, we may see the upward trend continue to take shape in May, and the shift in the Fed’s policy outlook could pave the way for fresh 2012 highs as the dollar appears to be carving a long-term uptrend.

The dollar weakened across the board, led by a 0.61 percent advance in the euro, while the British Pound climbed 0.49 to reach a fresh yearly high of 1.6143. As the Fed changes its tune, it seems as though the Bank of England will follow suit amid the resilience in core inflation, and the sterling may continue to track higher in May as it searches for resistances. As the GBPUSD comes up against the 23.6 percent Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.6250, we anticipate to see fresh yearly highs in the days ahead, and we will maintain our bullish forecast for the British Pound as the BoE moves away from its easing cycle.

source from: dailyfx

US dollar is pulling back as Forex traders look for better returns, mostly with European currencies and the Down Under currencies. Greenback is down against the euro and the pound right now as the better news results in a return to risk appetite. In the United States, earnings news is driving the markets. Solid earnings data and forecasts for the rest of 2012 have stocks gaining and risk appetite on the rise. This, in term, means a lower US dollar.

On top of that, the euro is getting help from the latest German Ifo data. The business sentiment survey from the Ifo shows that confidence is better than expected. Even though there are concerns about a eurozone recession, it appears that there are still those that are confident in once next. Also helping European currencies is the fact that the IMF has secured Russian funding.

At 14:21 GMT EUR/USD is up to 1.3208 from the open at 1.3137. GBP/USD is up to 1.6132 from the open at 1.6052. USD/JPY is up to 81.6705 from the open at 81.6050.

source from: topforexnews

Aussie is higher against the US dollar today, gaining as a measure of risk appetite returns to the markets. US stocks are showing signs of recovery as earnings news spurs bulls forward. Additionally, the high demand for sovereign debt in the eurozone (even though yields are a bit high) is helping to allay some fears for the 17-nation currency region.

Australian dollar is finding some support against currencies like the dollar and the yen today. However, Aussie is lower against the euro and the pound. The mixed performance is to be somewhat expected, though, as European currencies make a comeback. Against the dollar and the yen, the Aussie’s superior interest rate and high return potential is helping.

At 15:30 GMT AUD/USD is higher at 1.0354, up from the open at 1.0344. EUR/AUD is up to 1.2726 from the open at 1.2705. GBP/AUD is up to 1.5538 from the open at 1.5520. AUD/JPY is higher at 84.64, up from the open at 84.43.

source from: topforexnews

JPMorgan Chase is proving that banks aren’t destined to be also-rans in the $12 trillion mutual fund business.

The company in 2011 became the first bank to crack the list of 10 largest U.S. stock and bond fund managers, according to research firm Strategic Insight.

Under global funds chief George Gatch, JPMorgan’s lineup posted higher net sales growth as a percentage of assets than any other firm with at least $50 billion, even as the bank spurned the charge by investors into index funds and posted middle-of-the-pack fund returns.

“Their performance as an asset gatherer has been phenomenal,” said Geoff Bobroff, a mutual fund consultant in East Greenwich, R.I. “Their fund performance isn’t one to gather a lot of attention, but they’re solid from a business standpoint.”

While rival banks sought to sell asset management units after the financial crisis, JPMorgan escaped relatively unscathed, allowing it to spend on that unit and lift long-term fund assets by 160 percent since 2008.

The largest U.S. bank by assets succeeded in part by courting financial advisers to complement its in-house sales force and by offering hedge-fund-like products that have become more popular as investors flee traditional stock funds.

Funds owned by banks, brokerages and insurers have lost ground over the past decade to pure money managers such as Vanguard and Franklin Resources.

The asset management unit, which also includes money funds and separate accounts for institutions and wealthy investors, produced 11 percent of JPMorgan’s $21.5 billion in fourth-quarter revenue and 8.1 percent of its profit.

“It’s still a relatively small piece in terms of its total contribution to earnings, but it’s an avenue of growth at a time when growth in traditional banking has been constricted,” said Shannon Stemm, an analyst at Edward D. Jones in St. Louis.

Net deposits of $17.9 billion in 2011 were the third-highest dollar amount in the industry, trailing only those of Valley Forge, Penn.-based Vanguard and Pacific Investment Management in Newport Beach, Calif., according to data compiled by Morningstar.

As JPMorgan’s long-term fund assets grew to $139 billion, the firm climbed four spots on the research company’s list, leapfrogging rivals including No. 10 Oppenheimer.

“We want to remain in the top five in net flows every year for the foreseeable future,” Gatch said in an interview at his New York office. “If we do that, we’re well-positioned as the markets normalize.”

Vanguard, with $1.31 trillion in stock and bond mutual funds as of Dec. 31, is the biggest manager, followed by Los Angeles-based Capital Group’s American Funds, Boston’s Fidelity Investments and Pimco. The data exclude money market funds.

source from: forexnews

European finance chiefs agreed to bolster the firewall against the debt crisis at today’s meeting in Copenhagen. While they are aiming to help mainly Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the increase of the bailout funds may also be beneficial to Hungary. The country is the most indebted among eastern nations of the European Union and has sought help from the EU and the International Monetary Fund for the second time since 2008.

Adam Keszeg, the analyst at Raiffeisen Bank International AG, wrote:

We are still of the view that all parties want to sign the agreement eventually, and thus expect notably lower yields in the summer to come.

The forint has gained 6.7 percent in the past three months, the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2009. The currency was the second-best performer worldwide in this period after the Polish zloty.

USD/HUF fell from 221.56 to 220.57 and EUR/HUF went down from 294.9600 to 294.4500 as of 19:56 GMT today.

source from: topforexnews

Traders were felling optimistic about Europe’s ability to overcome its crisis. The US economy still looks robust, even though some data made investors worried. Even China is still considered an economic powerhouse by many experts despite concerns about a hard landing for the country’s economy. Additionally, the Bank of Japan previously stated that it’s going to perform monetary easing, reducing appeal of the yen.

AS Carl Forcheski, the director on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale, summed that up:

The main driving force behind the yen was the Bank of Japan embarking on a much easier monetary policy. The U.S. labor market has performed a bit better than a lot of people were expecting and some of the data we’ve seen lately has given us a little bit of optimism.

The week started on the positive not as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted that a new round of quantitative easing isn’t out of question, leading to a drop of the yen. Later, the yen rebounded on concerns about China’s economic slowdown and reemerging fears of the debt crisis in Europe. By the end of the week, though, the Japanese currency resumed decline as European finance ministers agreed to boost the aid for indebted nations of the European Union.

USD/JPY rose from 82.39 to 82.80 this week. EUR/JPY was up from 109.34 to 110.48 and GBP/JPY edged higher from 130.78 to 132.60.

source from: topforexnews

Expectations of a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India at its policy review later this week have risen after the RBI slashed the cash reserve ratio by 75 basis points on Friday, and weak industrial output data would add to those bets.

Indian industrial production (IIP) is likely to have grown by a median 2.1% in January from a year earlier, compared with 1.8% in the previous month, according to a Reuters poll.

At 10:15am, the rupee was at 49.95/96 to the dollar, down from Friday’s close of 49.84/85.

“There was some bit of dollar selling in early trades, but oil companies have been continuously buying dollars, keeping the pressure on the rupee,” said a senior foreign exchange dealer with a foreign bank.

The dealer predicts more weakness was likely in the local currency with a move towards the 51 level as worries over global growth trajectory persist.

The reduction in the CRR and consequent liquidity injection is also not expected to increase the RBI’s capacity to sell dollars in case of a sharp slide in the rupee.

“Liquidity will still remain quite tight as outflows for advance taxes will also happen,” a foreign exchange dealer said.

Local companies will pay the last installment of their advance taxes for the current financial year by 15 March.

The RBI has been actively intervening in the currency markets over the past few months to help support the rupee, which touched a record low of 54.30 on 15 December.

Oil is India’s biggest import item, and consequently, local oil refiners are the largest buyers of greenbacks in the domestic currency market.

The one-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were at 50.4.

In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-month dollar-rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and on the United Stock Exchange were all around 50.16, on a total volume of $908 million.

source from: forexnews